The latest election survey from Datafolha

It seems that after a major setback from the bad economic news to the protests, president Dilma's popularity is on the rise again. The latest survey from Datafolha, a research company of the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, shows that the president would be successful among any candidate that is considered today. Dilma scores from 41% to 47% of the total votes' intentions. This means that she would defeat almost all of their opponents in the first round of the presidential elections with the exception of Marina Silva, that is currently being accounted most as a vice-president candidate for the Eduardo Campos candidacy.

Behind this more favorable scene are some recent change on the news, that were more optimists on later weeks. Finally the government concessions got out of the paper, with the airports and the first road segment (of BR-163)  being delivered to the private initiative. The inflation also seemed to be under control, with the market predictions falling down on the beginning of the week and the Central Bank raising interest rates to 10%, on another sign that the economic policy is searching for more credibility. 

In this scenario, the government authorized an increase of 2% on the gasoline prices by Petrobras, that was suffering with cash flow problems since it had to import the fuel with a higher price than consumers in Brazil pay for it. It is still not enough for the company's needs, market analysts said, but it is a sign that things are changing. 

Last but not least, the recent news that the statistics bureau IGBE is revising last year's growth from 0.9% to 1.5% also contributed to the change of humor this week. Let's hope that the country keeps on this track for the next year.

The general tone around Dilma Rousseff

Nobody yet knows at what extent this year’s protests will have an effect on the next year’s presidential elections. There were those who said it would impede Dilma from being reelected and I certainly believe it was one thing that gave Eduardo Campos and the its party the PSB the final push towards moving out of the government and launching a presidential candidacy for president.

One thing is for sure, the tone of the press around Dilma could certainly be one indicator that preceded the protests. Initially the press was very positive around Dilma. The president got compliments from O Estado de S. Paulo in her first interview. Dilma was somewhat protected by the press during her first year as a president, when she had to cut six ministers accused of corruption.

The honeymoon started to end throughout the second year and definitely ended in the end beginning of this year, when it became clear that the country’s economy stability had been thrown away by the president, in the name of maintaining (artificially) the unemployment low and the president’s popularity high. The main indicator that this was the case was the lost of the grip in inflation, that obliged Dilma to push back one of her main objectives in the economic policy (of bringing the Brazilian interest rates to international levels).

Today, Ricardo Noblat, columnist of O Globo, elevates even more the tone against the president, siding her with two other Brazilian contradictions already unmasked: the former senator Demóstenes Torres (that was a symbol of honesty until he was linked with Carlos Cachoeira, a criminal that run illegal gambling business across the Brazil’s center-west region) and Eike Batista (a Brazilian billionaire, featured as one of the richest men in the world, and now facing bankruptcy). Noblat says Dilma’s contradiction is her fame as a tough manager, highly promoted by Lula. Since none of the big infrastructure improvements were launched due to a lack of managerial and political abilities, Noblat says it is a big contradiction that Dilma still has a chance of being elected for a second term.

This certainly gives another glimpse of what will be the general tone against the president next year, and again can also indicate that the amount of effort, and money, that PT will have to spend for this reelection will be much more than expected two years ago.

Economic stability as a big issue on next year's presidential elections

The pre-salt auction has again gained the main pages of Brazilian newspapers today, but I’ll leave the subject for tomorrow’s post. For now, it’s suffice to say that there are occurring some protests and that according to Folha de S. Paulo and Valor Econômico, this probably could be the first and last auction in which Petrobras will be obliged to participate with at least 30% of participation in each area. As mentioned in a previous post in this blog, the state controlled oil company is short on cash, crippled by the government’s policy.

What I would like to call attention to is the interview of Eduardo Giannetti, economic advisor of Marina Silva to Folha, saying that she would stand for a lower state presence in the economy. It does not mean that she will take the liberal path, but probably that she would be more market friendly.

The interview is also another way of saying that the economy is going to be a big topic in next year presidential election. Giannetti praised the last term of Fernando Henrique Cardoso as a president (1999-2002) and the first term of Lula (2003-2006). After that the macroeconomic tripod (fiscal responsibility, inflation control and floating currency) was somewhat abandoned, he said.